Page 89 - Sonbeel Utsab 2024

spread of COVID-19, was also quite similar to that of the country. Since 2017-18 the
rate of growth of the state's GDP has been declining. For the year 2019-20, the rate of
growth of the Gross State Domestic Product has been estimated at 5.8 percent which
is 16 percent lower than the previous year (Directorate of Economics and Statistics,
Government of Assam). Likewise, the PLFS 2017-18 estimates the state's
unemployment rate at 7.9 percent, which was just 2.9 percent in 2013-14 (EUS,
NSSO; Government of India). So the overall economy of the state was also
experiencing slow down and the pressure of increasing unemployment.

Clearly, the outbreak of COVID-19 in the country and subsequent response
to it in the form of lockdown has put further strains on the economy, and therefore, the
economic impact of the pandemic anticipated being far more severe than what could
have been otherwise. It has further aggravated the aggregated supply situation by
halting productive activities and by disrupting the supply and value chains in the
economy; and increased contraction in the aggregate demand by adversely affecting
the income of the people. The combined effect of these has only accelerated the pace
and process of economic slow-down already existent both in the country and the
state.

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, globally there has been a consensus that
the rate of economic growth will decline worldwide, including all major economies.
The Economic Survey of India (2019-20) projected around 6.5 percent rate of growth
for the Indian economy during the year 2020-21 (Vol. II, p.29). Several other
agencies also projected growth rate of around 6 percent for the Indian economy
during the year 2020-21. Due to the impact of COVID-19, various agencies have
already lowered their growth projections for the Indian economy for the current year.

As per the most recent releases the IMF has put India's growth rate at 1.9
percent while the World Bank and the ADB have put the rates at 2.8 and 4 percent
respectively. Similarly, Moodys has projected 2.5 percent, Fitch at 1.8 percent, S & P
at 3.5 percent, and India Ratings and Research has put the rate at 3.6 percent. The
worst has been forecasted by Barclays at 0 percent. It is, therefore, possible to create
at least three scenarios with 0 percent, 2 percent and 4 percent rates of economic
growth giving the worst, moderate and the best scenarios for the Indian economy
against the expected growth rate of 6.5 percent for the current fiscal. This implies that
the Indian economy is going to witness a reduction in the anticipated growth rate by
6.5 percent in the worst possible scenario and by 2 percent in the best possible
scenario.

Impact on Employment and Income

One of the most obvious fallout of economic contraction in general and
81